This documentary about Lester Brown was broadcast recently on the PBS program Journey to Planet Earth, with Matt Damon as host. Brown's online bio says he started out growing tomatoes in south Jersey, got a degree from Rutgers, founded the Worldwatch Institute, and has had a hand in writing 50 books.
The documentary follows Brown around the globe, as he speaks in various countries and contemplates the chain of events that could lead to civilization's collapse catalyzed by changing climate. I resisted liking the documentary at first, being tired of environmental documentaries that depend for movement on the protagonist traveling around in a car or plane, all the while telling us to stop consuming fossil fuels. Long, lingering shots of a jet flying gracefully above the clouds seems to send the wrong message somehow. And the film doesn't deal with the large percentage of people whose underlying religious and/or ideological beliefs prevent them from engaging in this subject.
But for an audience that already understands that climate change is a big problem, and understands the prophet's need to speed round the world to spread the word, the film offers a compelling case for ramping up the level of concern. Brown believes an 80% reduction in greenhouse emissions is necessary not by 2050 but by 2020, if we are to have a chance of saving the Himalayan glaciers that sustain four major river systems in Asia. The film is particularly good at showing hidden cause and effect. Lost glaciers lead to water shortages, which leads to food shortages in China and elsewhere, which leads to Asia competing aggressively for food grown in the U.S. and other countries, which leads to higher food prices for everyone.
Brown had initially rejected the idea that food could be the weak link in early 21st century civilization, but now believes that climate change will likely lead to the sorts of food shortages that caused past civilizations to collapse. Climate change is a "threat multiplier for instability", which has led Brown to track the "failing state" phenomenon around the globe, as more and more states lose control of their territory through violent unrest. "How many failed states before we have a failing civilization?", he asks.
Common in collapses of past civilizations was the failure of leaders to see early warning signs. A recurrent theme in the film is the suddenness with which events can spiral out of control, and how an imminent collapse can be hidden behind the facade of normality. Enron, for instance, at one point ranked 7th in total global worth, yet was proven to be worthless. Like Enron, we're leaving costs off the books, through such practices as not factoring the atmospheric dumping of CO2 into the cost of a commodity.
Some climate models are now showing that a 2.5 degree increase in global temperature may lead to drought and massive dieback in the Amazon basin, with 1 billion acres of forest and 20% of global biodiversity at risk of going up in flames. Brown puts forth the concept of problems developing geometrically, so that a situation can seem only half bad the day before it becomes all bad (google The 29th Day).
The film does offer a plan at the end, Plan B, which has four interdependent parts and is delivered in a frank and thankfully subdued way, avoiding the cheerleading tone of some other documentaries. My notes are incomplete, but the plan includes reducing the income tax combined with raising the fuel tax, restoring habitats like the ocean, curbing population growth by eradicating poverty and investing in people, particularly in the education and empowerment of women, tapping wind, solar and geothermal energy, and such. Nuclear energy is too expensive; carbon sequestration is not ready.
To give some wisp of hope to this venture, World War II is offered as an example of how the U.S. economy was radically retooled in a matter of months. No cars were built for 2 1/2 years as the factories produced armaments instead. Substitute wind generators and solar cells for armaments, and the general outline becomes clear. The participation of everyone is needed ("Saving civilization is not a spectator sport."), and along with averting calamity we will also gain a stronger sense of community.
Left unmentioned is the host of powerful economic interests and ideologies that are deeply antagonistic towards environmentalism and government, and stand ready to sabotage any movement towards coherent, unified response. That's the companion documentary that needs to be found.
Squeeze the change out of climate by squeezing fossil fuels out of daily life.
